A major weather system is sweeping into the Jersey Shore region Thursday afternoon, bringing heavy downpours, flash flooding and damaging winds that threaten to disrupt the evening commute.

The National Weather Service issued a flood watch effective from noon Thursday through 2 a.m. Friday. Forecasters warn that repeated rounds of thunderstorms will roll through Monmouth and Ocean counties.

The storms are capable of producing rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches an hour, which could quickly overwhelm urban infrastructure and poor drainage systems. While widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected, localized pockets could see up to 5 inches of accumulation.

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Beyond the threat of rising water, forecasters say some cells developing this afternoon and evening could become strong to severe. The primary severe threats include damaging wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes.

A flash flood is a flood caused by heavy or excessive rainfall in a short period of time, generally less than six hours, according to the National Weather Service. Flash floods are usually characterized by raging torrents after heavy rains. A flash flood can be sudden and violent and take just minutes to develop. It is possible to experience a flash flood in areas not immediately receiving rain.

A flash flood warning is issued when a flood is imminent or occurring, the National Weather Service says. If you are in a flood-prone area, you should move immediately to high ground. The National Weather Service issues a flash flood watch when flash flooding is possible.

Kevin Dewald of Cape May Courthouse competes in 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard  Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Kevin Dewald of Cape May Courthouse competes in 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Lizzie Randel competes in 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard  Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Lizzie Randel competes in 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
The four finalists in the men’s division pose with their boards. Turke McGrath, James Carr, Paul Boardman, and Kevin Dewald. 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard  Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
The four finalists in the men’s division pose with their boards. Turke McGrath, James Carr, Paul Boardman, and Kevin Dewald. 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Kevin Dewald of Cape May Courthouse competes in 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard  Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Kevin Dewald of Cape May Courthouse competes in 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat quarterbackNick Malinowski. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat quarterbackNick Malinowski. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat quarterback Nick Malinowski. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat quarterback Nick Malinowski. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat’s Chancellor Joseph catches a high pass during drills. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat’s Chancellor Joseph catches a high pass during drills. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat Head Coach Paul Covine. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat Head Coach Paul Covine. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat’s Joshua Kozak listens intently as the next exercise is explained. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat’s Joshua Kozak listens intently as the next exercise is explained. Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Barnegat High School football practice on August 10, 2026 in Barnegat, NJ. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Cempetitors high five after finishing their heat. 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard  Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Cempetitors high five after finishing their heat. 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard  Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
A surf photographer uses a long lens on a tripod to shoot the competitors during the 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard  Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
A surf photographer uses a long lens on a tripod to shoot the competitors during the 18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard  Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
18th Annual Alliance for a Living Ocean’s Longboard Classic in Long Beach Township, NJ on August 8, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
Day at the Beach: Belmar. Cool breeze brings some relief from humidity during visit to Belmar, NJ on July 6, 2026. (Peter Ackerman/Asbury Park Press)
The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection has acquired a 22-acre property as an addition to the Monmouth Battlefield State Park. The DEP’s Green Acres Program purchased the property along Highway 33 in Manalapan. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection has acquired a 22-acre property as an addition to the Monmouth Battlefield State Park. The DEP’s Green Acres Program purchased the property along Highway 33 in Manalapan. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Bees collect nectar during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Bees collect nectar during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Colors fill the fields during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Colors fill the fields during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Colors fill the fields during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Colors fill the fields during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Deanna Drago, tuckerton, trims leaves on a sunflower during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Deanna Drago, tuckerton, trims leaves on a sunflower during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Colors fill the fields during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Colors fill the fields during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Colors fill the fields during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
Colors fill the fields during the Sunflower Festival at Argos Farm in Lacey Township Friday, August 7, 2026. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
An accident on the Garden State Parkway northbound near the Celia Cruz rest area in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026, left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
An accident on the Garden State Parkway northbound near the Celia Cruz rest area in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026, left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
A two vehicle accident on the Garden State Parkway northbound near the Celia Cruz rest area in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026, that left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
A two vehicle accident on the Garden State Parkway northbound near the Celia Cruz rest area in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026, that left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
A woman stands outside her car in stopped traffic on the Garden State Parkway near Lacey Road in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026.  An accident just south of the Celia Cruz left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
A woman stands outside her car in stopped traffic on the Garden State Parkway near Lacey Road in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026. An accident just south of the Celia Cruz left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
An accident on the Garden State Parkway northbound near the Celia Cruz rest area in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026, left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
An accident on the Garden State Parkway northbound near the Celia Cruz rest area in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026, left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
An two vehicle accident on the Garden State Parkway northbound near the Celia Cruz rest area in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026, that left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)
An two vehicle accident on the Garden State Parkway northbound near the Celia Cruz rest area in Lacey Township Friday evening, August 7, 2026, that left multiple injuries and closed the roadway. (Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press)

If advised to evacuate, do so immediately.

Use a battery-operated radio or television to get the latest emergency information.

Do not walk through floodwater. Just 6 inches of floodwater can sweep you off your feet if it is moving swiftly.

Turn around, don't drown; do not drive into a flooded street. Cars can be swept away by 2 feet of moving water or there may be unseen damage to the road. If you come to a flooded area turn around and go another way. Most flood-related deaths are caused by people driving through water.

Stay alert, turn weather notifications on.

Do not allow children to play in flowing water. Waters can hide rocks, trees and debris.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Severe storms could bring flash flooding, tornadoes Thursday | NJ weather