Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St's easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge.
IDP Education (ASX:IEL) has drawn fresh attention after reporting full year 2026 earnings, with sales of A$795.4 million and net income of A$12.27 million, both below the prior year's results.
See our latest analysis for IDP Education.
Since those results on 19 August 2026, IDP Education's latest A$1.76 share price comes after a 2.33% one day share price gain but follows a sharp loss over the year, with momentum clearly fading despite the short term bounce.
If IDP Education's recent slide has you reassessing your options, it may be worth widening your search to other areas of the market using the 5 top founder-led companies
Analyst targets and intrinsic value models both sit well above IDP Education's A$1.76 share price after a steep multi year slide. Are investors being too cautious about those weaker 2026 earnings, or simply realistic about the risks?
The most followed narrative on IDP Education currently points to a fair value of A$4.65 per share, compared with the latest A$1.76 close, and frames that gap as a deep value opportunity grounded in policy and pricing power arguments.
The market is pricing terminal decline into a franchise that is still taking price. That is the contrarian opportunity. This is a review of one of the most hated names on the ASX. IEL is down roughly 80% from its 2021 highs and about half over the past year, bottoming near A$2.04 to A$2.07 in late May after a Macquarie downgrade.
The fair value case for IDP Education hinges on how policy settings interact with student volumes, pricing power and long term earnings capacity. Want to see which cash flow assumptions, margin profiles and recovery paths sit underneath that A$4.65 figure? The core of this narrative is a detailed earnings power framework that treats today's price as a trough, not a ceiling.
Result: Fair Value of A$4.65 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the IDP Education narrative could quickly change if student volumes weaken further or if rivals gain key visa testing approvals that erode the position of IELTS.
Find out about the key risks to this IDP Education narrative.
The popular narrative leans on intrinsic value work, yet IDP Education's current A$1.76 price also implies a very rich P/E of 39.9x compared with 26.1x for domestic peers, 14.6x for the global Consumer Services group, and a fair ratio of 31x. Is that gap a warning on valuation risk or a mispriced opportunity?
For investors who want to see how this multiples picture stacks up against earnings quality, capital structure and cash flows over time, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
If this mix of concern and optimism around IDP Education feels familiar, now is the time to review the data and make your own call using the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.
Do not stop your research with IDP Education alone. The next opportunity for your portfolio may come from a completely different corner of the market.
Target resilience by scanning companies that appear better equipped for shocks using the 10 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
Hunt for potential bargains by reviewing companies that combine quality with attractive pricing through the 12 high quality undervalued stocks.
Strengthen your portfolio's foundation by focusing on businesses highlighted in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (21 results).
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include IEL.AX.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected]