Every day $1bn worth of goods crosses the river dividing Detroit, Michigan, and Windsor, Ontario, two largely blue-collar US and Canadian cities that have come to act as one in the creation of North America's auto industry.
News this week of Donald Trump's escalating trade spat with Canada has everyone worried. Political and economic leaders and observers labeled the move an act of "hubris" , blamed Trump's "ego", and called the escalation "insanity".
"We don't need Canada, they need us," Trump declared.
But many are hoping that Trump's plans to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian goods from 1 January, covering everything from automobiles to honey to hockey sticks, will prove another empty threat and cite the upcoming midterm elections as a pivotal reason the plan may be scrapped.
Control of the US Congress hangs in the balance and will almost certainly be decided by several close Michigan races. It also comes just two months after polling highlighted Michiganders' fatigue with and opposition to the president's unprecedented tariff program.
By a 63%-31% margin, residents here oppose tariffs on Canadian goods, according to a June Epic-MRA poll, including 35% of Republicans. Meanwhile, nearly 75% of Michiganders said the tariffs are fueling high prices.
Trump doubling down on an unpopular policy deep into election season is viewed by many observers as a gift to Democrats, and there is a real possibility that it contributes to a midterm loss for the Republicans. Meanwhile, there seems to be little upside for Trump.
"I don't understand what Trump is thinking," the Epic-MRA pollster Bernie Porn said.
Regardless, Michiganders have already suffered disproportionately as they pay on average over $3,200 annually for tariffs, or about 142% more than the rest of the country, because of the state's shared border with Canada.
The Canadian economy would also take a major hit if the tariffs are imposed, said Patrick Anderson, a Michigan-based economist with the Anderson Economic Group.
"Both will suffer – there are no two ways about it," Anderson added.
This critical upper midwest swing state has picked the presidential winner in five consecutive elections, going from Barack Obama to Trump to Joe Biden and back to Trump. Democrats' chances to retake the Senate rest heavily on the Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed beating Trump ally Mike Rogers in the 3 November general election race. Rogers has supported the tariffs, but so far has been silent on the latest escalation.
The tariffs and the unpopular Iran war's contribution to inflation represent a "double hit" for Republicans, Porn said, and Trump is handing ammo to a particularly adept candidate in El-Sayed. He has energized people with his anti-establishment, populist political vision, and a no-holds-barred delivery.
"El-Sayed has proven to be very, very articulate on a number of issues," Porn added. "I think that he is going to try and just throw bombs at Rogers [in an upcoming debate] because Rogers supports these tariffs and trade war. Trump's low popularity is an anchor around Rogers' neck."
In a statement, El-Sayed hammered Trump and Rogers, saying that the president "cares more about his ego and saber-rattling than addressing the affordability crisis.
"Donald Trump is launching this trade war for his own vanity, and he's asking Michigan families to pay the price," El-Sayed said. "Trump has been failing Michigan through these chaotic tariffs and bad trade deals for far too long, and Mike Rogers won't do anything but rubber-stamp them."
El-Sayed said he would push for "real, fair trade deals that create good-paying jobs". Rogers' campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
The United Auto Workers (UAW), which has 350,000 members in Michigan and is often a political kingmaker here, has supported some of Trump's targeted tariffs, but said in a statement it "rejects" the latest escalation.
"If we're going to increase tariffs anywhere, it should be on countries where automakers continue to offshore jobs because they can pay workers $3 an hour, force them to work in unsafe conditions, and crack down on independent unions," the UAW president, Shawn Fain, said. Canada has strong unions, and the UAW supports those.
"Tariffs work, but only if they are deployed intentionally to protect workers and grow our manufacturing communities, and it's time to permanently end offshoring and the race to the bottom," Fain added.
Mexico and Canada currently face 25% US tariffs on autos, though partial exemptions in the nations' free trade agreement make the effective rate much lower, overall. Anderson estimated tariffs cost US auto companies about $12.5bn in 2025.
The Canadian government has announced it will impose retaliatory tariffs on $20bn of goods starting 1 January. The actions leading to the latest blow-up have been "rife with miscalculations, overreactions, and hubris", Anderson said. He read through the list of goods on which tariffs would be imposed – feathers, sweaters, girls' dresses, lobster.
"This is not a trade war. This is an annoyance list. Chest pounding," Anderson said.
The North American auto industry over the last 60 years has integrated across the continent, and auto parts cross a border an average of six times before they land in a final product. That means there would be shared pain, Anderson said, and it would reverberate across the upper midwest, where bigger manufacturing cities are typically powered by industries that are often reliant on international trade.
But the Canadian economy is smaller, and Ontario's economy is so concentrated that it would hit harder north of the border, Anderson added. Ultimately, the real threat is that "these two countries go pell-mell into it" and impose tariffs on oil, energy and commodities that hit harder than lobster.
The dialogue has devolved into the usual petty antagonism that is a hallmark of Trump's beefs. Trump signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario "Lake America" on Thursday, and Vice-President JD Vance referred to Canada as the 51st state.
"Let me say with great understatement that this is not helpful," Anderson added.
Indeed, the Windsor mayor, Drew Dilkens, took exception to that particular comment. In an interview, he expressed deep frustration over Trump's moves, and labeled justifications Trump has used for issuing tariffs, including framing them as a response to illegal immigration on the northern border, "nonsense".
The latest escalation "is an aggressive move, one that could not be ignored by our country", added Dilkens, who leads the city of 230,000 people. "It's just offensive that he launches these attacks at Canada, who is your largest trading partner, your closest ally, and your neighbor."
The chaos has cooled investment in Windsor, and prices remain high on both sides of the border. He pointed out how much more US consumers are paying not just for automobiles, but for beef, which in part stems from tariffs on Canadian beef.
"What is really crazy is that he is willing to throw his own citizens under the bus to pursue his tariff agenda," Dilkens said. "They have Donald Trump to thank."
Highlighting the tension among the president and some in his base, the Michigan chamber of commerce, a trade organization that lobbies on behalf of the state's largest corporations, normally vocally supports the president on economic issues. It has not made a public statement, and did not respond to a request for comment from the Guardian.
However, the typically pro-Trump Detroit chamber of commerce did not mince words.
"Escalating tensions and tariffs will only cause economic pain on both sides of the border, especially in Michigan and the binational Detroit-Windsor region," the chamber said in a press statement, adding that global competitors like China benefited most.
"Our economies are intertwined, interconnected, and stronger together; the sooner normalcy is restored the better."