Italy could lose nearly 4 million residents by 2050, with the population falling from 58.9 million at the beginning of 2025 to 55 million in 2050, the national statistics office Istat predicted on Monday.
By 2080, the number is expected to fall to 45.8 million, according to the Istat forecasts.
The main reason is said to be a low birth rate, as the death rate rises. Istat said that immigration could cushion the decline to some extent but was not sufficient to reverse the trend.
The number of births in Italy has been falling steadily for several years. Last year, fewer children were born than at any time since the end of World War II, with just 355,000 births.
This means that women in Italy have an average of 1.14 children. The low birth rate in what was once a country with large families has long been one of Italy's major problems. In Europe, only a few countries, such as Spain and Malta, have lower rates.
According to Istat's latest report, the annual number of births is expected to remain largely stable until 2030. By 2050, however, the figure is projected to fall to 335,000. The statistics office is forecasting a steady increase in the annual number of deaths.
The demographic shift will place a significant long-term burden on Italy's economy. In her first government policy statement, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni declared that promoting the birth rate would be a political priority for her government and appointed a birth minister. This has not halted the downward trend.