(NewsNation) — Sen. Ted Cruz said Texas' closely watched Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is "effectively tied," with recent polling showing either candidate up by a point or two.
Cruz predicted Paxton will ultimately win the seat but acknowledged the Texas attorney general has faced roughly $200 million in attack ads while Talarico "had a cakewalk of a primary" and hasn't yet been targeted.
Cruz told NewsNation's Leland Vittert, Talarico's record doesn't match how he presents himself to voters.
"I worry about the voter who doesn't pay much attention, who turns on the TV and says, 'Oh, he seems like a nice young man,'" Cruz said, adding that most Texas voters don't yet know Talarico's record but will by Election Day.
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The race has drawn national attention amid questions about Republican fundraising heading into the midterms. Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana said the Senate GOP doesn't have Texas budgeted for and is counting on President Trump to spend some of his campaign war chest in the state, saying Trump has roughly $850 million on hand.
Cruz said 2026 is shaping up to a rougher political environment than 2024 nationally, not just in Texas, pointing to typical midterm dynamics where the party of power is more energized. "The left hates the president," Cruz said. "They will crawl over broken glass to vote against Donald Trump and to vote against any Republican on the ballot."
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He said Democratic control of Congress would stall Trump's legislative agenda and lead to a "24/7 impeachment circus" and "relentless investigations."
Trump carried Texas by roughly 1.2 million votes, or 12 percentage points, in 2024. Cruz said he stayed neutral in the Republican primary between Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn.
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