Fall in small boats down to law enforcement, agency says

Law enforcement activity has been a "key factor" in reducing the number of small boat Channel crossings, the National Crime Agency (NCA) says.

The number of people arriving in the UK in the first half of 2026 was down 41% on the year before, government figures show.

The NCA said the drop followed a "significant increase in arrests and seizures", although added "fluctuating demand" for crossings, and the French authorities preventing boat launches had also played a role.

However, Mihnea Cuibus, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford University's Migration Observatory, says it is "impossible" to disentangle the effects of government policy and other factors on small boat arrivals.

While recent policy changes appear to have led smugglers and migrants to alter their behaviour, Cuibus says fewer unauthorised arrivals into the EU and developments in key origin countries - such as improved security in Syria - may be partially behind the decline.

"It is hard to know how much restrictive measures contributed to reducing [arrivals] in 2026," he continues.

He said limitations on refugee family reunion and a reduction in the asylum grant rate could also have had an impact.

The Conservatives have previously said the weather played a huge role in the fluctuating numbers of crossings from France and Belgium.

NCA director general of operations Rob Jones said the agency was "devoting more resources to tackling organised immigration crime than ever before".

"However, we are not complacent, and the job is by no means done," he continued.

"We must continue to keep up the pressure on these criminal gangs, as they continue to put lives at risk in the Channel."

The NCA said organised crime groups had been affected by "supply constraints" on vital equipment used in crossings.

More than 1,600 boats or engines have been seized by the authorities since late 2023, it said.

The wholesale cost of these items has gone up as a result, according to an NCA spokesperson.

The NCA said a "number of key suppliers" had also been targeted, including the jailing of Adem Savas who reportedly supplied equipment used in about half of all crossings in 2023.

However, the NCA also admitted the war in the Middle East had also made it harder for criminals to source dinghies.

It added it could not publish its report on small boats in full because it contained sensitive intelligence.

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The NCA also pointed to activity targeting people smugglers reducing small boat crossings.

In the year to April 2026, arrests linked to organised immigration crime involving the NCA increased by more than 55%, it said.

The agency added it had also worked with social media networks to have more than 40,000 posts pages or accounts linked to immigration crime removed.

"We are making it more difficult and costlier for people smuggling networks to source equipment, more difficult to get it to the beaches and in the water, more difficult to communicate with potential customers, and more likely smugglers will be confronted by law enforcement," said Jones.

"Our message to the gangs is clear – moving people in small boats and supplying equipment gets riskier for you by the day," he continued.

However, the Migration Observatory said "most notably" there had been a sharp decline in detected unauthorised border crossings into the EU.

It said arrivals fell 26% in 2025, before declining another 37% in the first half of 2026.

"This is likely to lead, with a lag, to fewer unauthorised crossings to the UK, since most small boat migrants travel through the EU before reaching beaches in northern France," it added.

In August, the Home Office credited police in France with intercepting 185 potential crossings involving 4,300 migrants this summer over four separate weeks, as well as stopping 12 boats at sea using new techniques.

Many migrants come from some of the poorest parts of the world and almost all ask to claim asylum once they are picked up by the UK authorities.

Home Office figures show a total of 41,472 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats in 2025.

In 2025, there were 24 confirmed deaths related to Channel crossings, down from 73 the year before, according to the University of Oxford's Migration Observatory.

A total of 162 people died in the Channel between 2018 and 2025, it adds.

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