There have been only five tropical storms this year and zero hurricanes.
That's an amazing statement since we've already hit and passed the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Historically, we've usually seen nine storms and four hurricanes by mid-September.
The reason the Atlantic basin is so quiet is El Niño. While El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific, wind shear associated with El Niño helps prevent storms from developing or strengthening in the Atlantic.
But the season isn't over yet, and with more than two months left to go, what can Florida residents expect?
Here's what experts are predicting as they continue to emphasize everyone should remain prepared.
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The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
"With regards to what Florida residents can expect for the rest of the season, we are still forecasting an additional 0-2 direct U.S. impacts for the remainder of the hurricane season," said Nicholas Arman, AccuWeather forecasting operations meteorologist via email Sept. 14.
"We currently have two areas outlooked for potential tropical development in the Atlantic. The first area we are watching is in the northeastern Gulf from Sept. 17-19 as some upper energy cross from east to west over the Florida Panhandle, but we think this has a very low chance of tropical development at this point.
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"The current thinking is that if anything were to develop, it would likely move north and west away from Florida into the northern Gulf," Arman said.
"However, we still think from a seasonal perspective that the northeastern Gulf, including the Florida Panhandle, is at an increased risk of tropical impacts this season, along with the Carolinas.
"The second area we are watching is southeast of Bermuda from Sept. 17-21, which we believe has a medium risk of tropical development. As of now, we are not expecting any potential impacts to the mainland United States should this develop.
"While this has been a quiet season in the Atlantic overall, and we are now past the climatological peak of the hurricane season (Sept. 11), it's still important to remain vigilant and monitor forecasts as there can certainly be more impactful storms through the remainder of the season.
"By the end of the month, the pattern in the Atlantic could become more conducive for development, especially for homegrown development in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast," Arman said.
AccuWeather is forecasting an additional three to six named storms, for a total of eight to 11 named storms for the season, along with two to four hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes.
"Looking at landfall hurricanes, Florida storms peak about the same time as the overall hurricane season, but peninsula Florida's hurricane season skews later by about a week peaking around Sept. 17," said Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross. "South Florida hurricane landfalls average about a week later yet."
"The point is, we have more than half the hurricane season to go looking at Florida Peninsula, and especially South Florida averages.
"That's because early in the season storms that form in the Gulf and are more likely to affect the Panhandle. But by late September, most storms are deflected to the northeast, avoiding the northern Gulf Coast, and impacting the Florida Peninsula. That's because the jetstream dips farther south in the fall, which pushes storms from west to east," Norcross said.
"Remember, the season comes in three phases. Early in the season, storms form from old fronts or other non-tropical mechanisms usually in the Gulf or off the Southeast coast. This phase produced five tropical storms this year.
"All indications are that the second part of the hurricane season when storms normally develop in the tropical Atlantic from African disturbances will produce little or nothing. This is due to the persistent El Niño driven belt of hostile upper level winds and the extended Saharan dust season over the Caribbean and the main development area in the Atlantic," Norcross said.
"The third phase, when fronts push farther south and other disturbances can trigger tropical development in the Gulf, off the Southeast coast, and in the western Caribbean is yet to come.
"If this El Niño is true to form, the Caribbean is likely to be closed down for tropical development.
"But the hostile environment is less likely to affect the eastern Gulf and the Atlantic near the Bahamas and east of Florida. So looking at the odds, if we're going to see more storms form this year, that's where we'll look. Obviously anything that forms in the Gulf is a potential threat to Florida."
In its updated hurricane season forecast issued Aug. 5, Colorado State University maintained its earlier forecasts for a "well below-normal season."
Again, the reason is the strong El Niño and the impacts it has in the tropical Atlantic.
That doesn't mean Florida residents can rest easy and ignore the tropics.
From Maine to Texas, Florida remains the most likely to feel impacts from a storm in 2026 among the states listed by CSU.
Colorado State University's August forecast kept Florida at No. 1 for possible impacts this year.
Probability of an "event" within 50 miles of Florida:
CSU predicted the probabilities for at least one major hurricane landfall for these areas in 2026:
Entire continental U.S. coastline: 16%
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key): 7%
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville, Texas: 9%
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
In the Atlantic basin, there have been five named storms as of Sept. 15:
Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed June 17
Tropical Storm Bertha, which formed July 20, 2026
Tropical Storm Cristobal, which formed Aug. 12
Tropical Storm Dolly, which formed Aug. 27
Tropical Storm Edouard, which formed Sept. 1
All five were tropical storms, and three of them made landfall: Arthur, Bertha and Edouard along the Gulf coast.
What can we expect for the remainder of the season? Here's what the experts are saying.
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Arthur: Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17, 2026
Bertha: Tropical Storm Bertha formed July 20, 2026
Cristobal: Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Aug. 12
Dolly: Tropical Storm Dolly formed Aug. 27
Edouard: Tropical Storm Edouard formed Sept. 1
Fay: (sixth-named storm historically forms Aug. 29; first hurricane by Aug. 11; and first major hurricane Sept. 1)
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida's service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida's best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane season peak has passed. What are Florida's storm odds now?
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