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Illumina (ILMN) is back in focus after its Q2 2026 results beat expectations on both revenue and earnings, prompting the company to lift full year guidance and outline priorities in clinical sequencing and multi omics.
See our latest analysis for Illumina.
Illumina's recent guidance raise and Q2 beat come after a strong run in the stock, with a 90 day share price return of 47.16% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 116.67%. However, the 5 year total shareholder return is down 57.56%, which keeps longer term sentiment more mixed even as near term momentum builds.
If Illumina's recent move has you rethinking your exposure to genomics and data heavy healthcare, this is a good moment to look at other specialised opportunities through the 41 healthcare AI stocks
Illumina now appears to be a stronger business than its 5 year share chart suggests. After a rapid rebound and an increase in guidance, the key question is whether the current price still represents a reasonable entry point.
The most followed Illumina narrative puts fair value at $172.53, which sits below the latest close of $205.10, and leans on detailed growth and margin forecasts.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.1 billion (and earnings per share of $7.09) by about July 2029, up from $853.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as $1.3 billion.
Want to see what underpins that earnings step up for Illumina? The narrative leans on specific revenue growth, margin expansion, and a future earnings multiple that might surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $172.53 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Illumina still faces meaningful risks, including legal setbacks in Germany and ongoing regulatory uncertainties in China that could affect revenue and investor sentiment.
Find out about the key risks to this Illumina narrative.
The analyst narrative suggests Illumina is 19% overvalued at $205.10 compared to a fair value of $172.53. Yet our DCF model points the other way, with a future cash flow value of $259.71, which implies the current price could be too low. Which framework do you trust more for your own assumptions?
To see how that cash flow view is built step by step, take a closer look at the SWS DCF model for Illumina, including the discount rate and growth inputs behind the $259.71 estimate. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Given this mix of optimism and concern around Illumina, it makes sense to look at the underlying data yourself and decide quickly where you stand. To weigh both sides of the story in one place, start with the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ILMN.
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