MEXICO CITY, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual headline inflation likely slowed in July to its lowest level since May 2020, according to a Reuters poll, as lower food prices offset seasonal increases in tourism costs.
The central bank, also known as Banxico, is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged when it announces its monetary policy decision later on Thursday, extending a pause that began in June.
• Annual headline inflation likely fell to 3.12%, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline, according to the median forecast of 18 analysts surveyed.
• Core inflation, which excludes some volatile items, is estimated to have slowed to 3.94%, its lowest since April 2025.
• Consumer prices are estimated to have risen 0.03% month-on-month in July, while core prices likely rose 0.22%.
• The figure would bring inflation closer to Banxico's target of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.
• "The disinflation process is on track, although inflation in the services sector is likely to keep Banxico on a cautious footing," said Andres Abadia of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
• Barclays warned that food prices could rebound toward year-end and future minimum wage increases could prolong inflationary pressures in services.
• Statistics agency INEGI is due to publish its latest inflation figures on Friday.
(Reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Written by Noe Torres; Editing by Natalia Siniawski)