Happy Saturday! Here's another edition of my weekend column for WPRI.com -- as always, send your takes, tips and trial balloons to [email protected] and follow me on Facebook, Instagram, X/Twitter, Bluesky and LinkedIn.

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The last time we had a new public poll of the Democratic gubernatorial primary, back on June 30, the UNH Survey Center found Helena Foulkes leading Dan McKee by 20 points.

Seven weeks later, after umpteen TV ads and heavy news coverage, Salve's Pell Center has just released a poll that shows Helena Foulkes leading Dan McKee by -- wait for it -- 20 points.

Is it really possible that all this campaigning hasn't changed much at all? If so, it's grim news for the McKee campaign, which is low on money and dark on TV. The poll does show 22% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided and potentially winnable for McKee, but that group doesn't look very pro-incumbent; the crosstabs show they are 14 points less likely than the overall electorate to support Jack Reed in his reelection bid, for instance.

All that may help explain why McKee came into Tuesday night's live prime-time WPRI 12 debate ready to brawl. "He had to be aggressive. I think he was aggressive," our political analyst Joe Fleming said on this week's Newsmakers. "The question is, did he do enough in this debate to move enough voters to make this race tight?"

An initial answer to that question will come Tuesday at 5 p.m., when 12 News and Emerson College will release our latest exclusive poll of Democratic primary voters, which went into the field the morning after the TV debate. (We'll also have fresh findings in the primaries for AG and lieutenant governor, a look ahead at the November gubernatorial matchups, and more.)

McKee and Foulkes both had high and low moments in the debate, which you can watch here.

The governor made a forceful case for his record, marshaling facts and figures to tout progress in areas like education, the economy and housing. But he struggled to explain the failed initial bidding process for the Washington Bridge, and gave fodder to social media when during one heated exchange he told Foulkes, "I am the state of Rhode Island."

Foulkes kept her composure and kept reminding voters of the least flattering statistics about Rhode Island's condition under McKee. But she also demonstrated once again why the opioid issue is a real problem for her, claiming ignorance of why CVS kept filling scripts for the now-incarcerated Dr. Raymond Kraynak except to say, "We missed some, but we did so much."

With all three broadcast debates behind us and early voting underway since Thursday, the race has now entered a new stage. McKee is working overtime to make headlines and find more support, joining labor leaders to endorse the union-backed "Rule of 90" pension change on Thursday. The pro-McKee outside group Working Rhode Island Forward reported a $100,000 infusion from the Laborers this week, though its 30-second ad still hasn't hit the increasingly crowded and pricey TV airwaves.

The well-funded Foulkes campaign is meanwhile keeping up its TV and digital advertising, reinforcing the change message she hammered in the debate, and has begun sending paid mailers to voters, as well. She also continues to pick up new endorsements, with four more state lawmakers backing her on Friday, bringing her to 31 supporters in the General Assembly.

One thing is becoming clear: voters are engaged. The TV debate drew high ratings Tuesday night, and the secretary of state's tracker shows 3,197 voters cast ballots on the first two days of early voting -- more than double the number that did so on the first two days in 2022.

P.S. Foulkes is calling in the same closer she did in 2022: Nancy Pelosi, who also stumped for her in the closing days of that year's campaign.

The former speaker of the House has once again agreed to headline a Foulkes get-out-the-vote rally, which has been scheduled for next Sunday afternoon in Providence, a spokesperson confirmed Friday.

The connection: Foulkes's late mother, Martha Dodd Buonanno, was Pelosi's college roommate and close lifelong friend. The two met as students at Washington's Trinity College in 1958, at a time when both their fathers were running for U.S. Senate; Pelosi's father lost his race in Maryland, but Foulkes's grandfather Thomas Dodd won his in Connecticut.

Governor: Whether the Democratic nominee is Helena Foulkes or Dan McKee, bettors are increasingly expecting that Elaine Pelino will be their GOP opponent, with her odds spiking to 89% on Kalshi this week after the Salve poll again showed her leading Aaron Guckian.

Independent Ken Block is likely to be a real factor in the November election no matter what given how underfunded both Republicans are and his own appeal to some conservatives. Block is still running a fairly low-key campaign as the primary unfolds, but this week he rolled out another policy proposal, a "One Stay, One Bill" plan to consolidate hospital billing.

Attorney General: With two polls now showing Kim Ahern above 20% and separating from the pack, she increasingly looks like the one to beat in the Democratic primary -- and her rivals are acting like it.

Keith Hoffmann's campaign has begun criticizing Ahern more forcefully, whether over invoking a plaque from AG Neronha (who's endorsed Hoffmann) or the 2017 mistrial litigated in our TV debate. Some big names are starting to weigh in as the candidates try to break through: Patrick Kennedy backed Ahern and Elizabeth Warren backed Hoffmann. The other two Democrats are also campaigning heartily, with Joe Solomon Jr. rolling out more union endorsements and ramping up his TV ads, and Jason Knight trying to capitalize on his debate performances with an ICE-focused ad.

Don't forget: with four viable candidates in the AG primary, the winner may not need much more than what Ahern has in current surveys to prevail. But nearly half of voters remain undecided, so big shifts remain entirely possible.

Lieutenant Governor: It's a similar story to the AG race, with a crowded field struggling to get the electorate's attention -- with the added problem that the office they seek tends to be sleepy.

The Salve poll reinforced the conventional wisdom that incumbent Sabina Matos faces the gravest threat from Newport City Councilor Xay Khamsyvoravong, with Matos at 18% and Khamsyvoravong at 16%. Congressman Gabe Amo took the unusual step (for the delegation, anyway) of endorsing the non-incumbent in a contested primary, repaying Khamsyvoravong's support in Amo's own successful 2023 campaign against Matos.

The other three Democrats were all in single-digits, though Providence City Councilor Sue AnderBois was on the higher end at 8%, and is now up with a TV ad. Smithfield resident Ross McCurdy actually did slightly better than former state Sen. Cindy Coyne, at 4% and 2%, respectively. Half of voters are undecided.

Providence Mayor (and City Council): With almost no polling other than the recent survey showing Brett Smiley with a slim lead over David Morales, the state of this one remains a constant source of speculation among Rhode Island's political cognoscenti.

A Florida DSA candidate's unexpected victory in a Senate primary was another out-of-state data point that cheered Morales backers. Smiley is bringing in his old boss Gina Raimondo for a rally with the building trade unions plus a round of door-knocking on Thursday. And both candidates sat down with Ian Donnis for separate One on One interviews, where the topics included their suddenly high-interest divergence on Flock cameras.

Meantime, progressives on the City Council are pulling out all the stops to try and defeat colleague John Goncalves in next month's primary, with a majority of councilors endorsing challenger Miguel Youngs.

Pawtucket Mayor: A sleeper Democratic primary that a lot of people are watching, as observers wonder how much of a threat former Jewish Alliance CEO Adam Greenman poses to long-serving incumbent Don Grebien. The pair met for their only debate this week in a tense encounter on Globe RI's Rhode Island Report podcast.

The debate's moderator, Ed Fitzpatrick, quipped afterwards on 12 News at 4: "I'd say they got along about as well as Governor McKee and Helena Foulkes did the other night on Channel 12."

Congress: The Salve poll offers the latest evidence Jack Reed is in no danger of a colossal upset in the primary, with the incumbent at 61% against just 16% combined for opponents Connor Burbridge and Luis Daniel Muñoz. Reed's campaign isn't taking the race for granted, though, rolling out an Elizabeth Warren endorsement video and going up on TV this week.

The Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District looks competitive based on the Salve poll, with Stephen Skoly at 29% and Vic Mellor at 22%, but a big margin of error (7.8 points) and a big undecided vote (48%). Mellor had Rudy Giuliani in town last weekend to headline a rally, while Skoly may be benefiting from the ongoing questions about Mellor's finances.

Over in Massachusetts, the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate is suddenly looking a lot less competitive, with back-to-back polls showing Ed Markey far ahead of Seth Moulton. The 80-year-old incumbent did himself no favors with a foggy answer about AI during Thursday's closing TV debate, but Moulton suffered a blow Friday when legendary Boston sports anchor Mike Lynch used a Facebook post to slam Moulton as a jerk and endorse Markey.

IG watch: Turns out there is plenty of interest in becoming Rhode Island's first inspector general -- Kim Kalunian reports 33 applications were submitted to the search panel by Friday's deadline. Finalists are supposed to be forwarded to the governor by Sept. 28.

Loophole watch: "Rhode Island is spending millions of dollars to fix mistakes in its food-stamp program. And succeeding in the effort could put taxpayers on the hook for a $51 million penalty beginning in 2027. That's not a typo." Our Eli Sherman explains here.

Wonk watch: After last week's scoop in this column about a shakeup in the House Policy Office under Chris Blazejewski, word has come from the third floor about the new speaker's pick for a new House policy director: former state Rep. Jay O'Grady, who represented Lincoln for four terms and has experience in affordable housing development.

It's a bird: Is the long-stalled project to renovate Rhode Island's tallest building finally getting back on track? The owners of the Superman building will be before the R.I. Commerce Corp. this Monday night to seek additional state subsidies as they await a federal loan decision.

Smith Hill: The governor's office is still sending out policy announcements even with all the attention on the campaign, including a new housing development dashboard that illustrates how many new units are being built with state incentives (and where).

Atomic time: Massachusetts' Maura Healey is bringing Dan McKee and their fellow New England governors to UMass Lowell on Sept. 30 for "a regional summit to explore the role advanced nuclear and fusion energy can play in New England's energy future."

Chips are down: Twin River operator Bally's is having big enough financial problems that the company had to warn the SEC about its solvency risks, sending the company's shares plunging; state officials insist they have a handle on the situation (and its gusher of revenue).

Mallrats: Providence Place is finally under new ownership, with the new group that includes former Mayor Joe Paolino taking over officially this week and declaring "a new beginning."

Holiday House: Perhaps it's no surprise that the owners of million-dollar second homes would have the money to challenge Rhode Island's new Taylor Swift tax in court, and they did so this week with a suit led by Hinckley Allen's Jerry Petros.

Congrats: To my digital colleagues Jusolyn Flower and Liz Turley on being part of the incoming class of fellows for NEFAC's 2026 Gloria L. Negri First Amendment Institute, along with my former student Sam Ferland and former Ocean State Media colleague Isabella Jibilian among others.

→ Patrick Anderson on the gubernatorial candidates' economic claims

→ Antonia Noori Farzan on how Rhode Island campaigns are using AI

→ Peggy Noonan on the long-term perils of overlooking corruption

→ John Harris on the complicated legacy of Bill Clinton as he turns 80

→ Maibritt Henkel on new evidence that men actually also want it all

This week on Newsmakers — highlights and analysis from Tuesday's gubernatorial debate. Watch Sunday at 5:30 a.m. on WPRI 12 and 10 a.m. on Fox Providence, or listen on the radio Sunday at 6 p.m. on WPRO. You can also subscribe to Newsmakers as a podcast via Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. See you back here next Saturday morning.

highlights and analysis from Tuesday's gubernatorial debate

Ted Nesi ([email protected]) is a Target 12 investigative reporter and 12 News politics/business editor. He co-hosts Newsmakers and writes Nesi's Notes on Saturdays. Connect with him on Facebook, Instagram, X/Twitter, Bluesky and LinkedIn.

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