In the wake of three bare-knuckle radio and TV debates, Gov. Dan McKee has narrowed but not closed the double-digit lead held by his Democratic primary challenger, Helena Foulkes, according to a newly released WPRI-TV 12/Emerson College poll.
Heading into the debates, which ended on Aug. 18 with an hour-long debate on WPRI, Foulkes led McKee by 20 percentage points or more, with one out of five voters still undecided.
The new poll released on Tuesday, Aug. 25, shows Foulkes now leading McKee by 15 percentage points – 45% to 30% – with 25% of likely primary voters still describing themselves as undecided, with only two weeks left until Rhode Island's Sept. 9 primary day.
When "undecided" voters were pushed on which direction they were leaning, the gap widened, with 61% of the undecideds saying Foulkes would likely get their vote, while only 39% said McKee, the 75-year-old incumbent seeking a second full four-year term.
"He had a strong debate and I believe that helped him close the gap some," longtime WPRI political consultant Joseph Fleming told The Journal, but he still has a 15-point deficit with time running out, early voting already underway and very little money left for TV ads to make his case.
"That's a large block of voters to make up in two weeks … and he's lacking money," said Fleming, when asked about McKee's chances of beating the odds currently stacked against him.
The survey of 528 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted between Aug. 21 and 22 by Emerson College for WPRI-TV 12. It had what the pollsters called a plus or minus 4.2% "credibility interval."
Unlike some past surveys, the new WPRI poll delves into why voters do not appear willing to reelect McKee, despite some misgivings about Foulkes' own track record as the head of the pharmacy division at CVS during the opioid crisis, a history McKee and his backers have hammered again and again.
Those polled were asked: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dan McKee has handled the Washington Bridge crisis as governor?" The answer: 63% "somewhat" or "strongly" disapproved of what he did after closing the westbound span of the interstate bridge abruptly in December 2023 out of concern that it was so deteriorated it was on the verge of collapse.
Very few people were neutral: only 15%.
The poor maintenance that doomed the bridge began years before McKee took office, and the Department of Transportation officials who oversaw the span were hired by his predecessors, but after promising a "Day of Reckoning," he has not yet called out any specific decisions by his predecessors or former DOT Director Peter Alviti Jr., whom he kept in charge for more than two years after the bridge closed.
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Fleming's takeaway: "I've been saying from the beginning, the bridge is the gift that keeps on giving to his opponents. People have a very negative opinion about the job he's done with that bridge. I don't think people are blaming him for the closure of the bridge, but I think the way it was handled afterwards. And that really, I think, has hurt him big time."
The result: No demographic group in the WPRI/Emerson survey applauded his handling of the crisis that has frustrated drivers, as he touts a projected 2028 completion date for a brand new bridge he had tried without luck to get a contractor to commit to building by this election.
The poll also asked: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Helena Foulkes handled the opioid crisis as a CVS executive?"
The response: 46% "somewhat" or "strongly" disapproved, but 28% were neutral and possibly unsure exactly how much control she actually had as executive vice president of CVS Health and president of CVS Pharmacy between 2014 and 2018, though she gives CVS credit for reducing the flow by removing some pill mill doctors from approved subscriber lists.
"There's no question that has had some impact, but it looks like the bridge has had more of an impact than the opioids at this point," Fleming said in an interview with The Journal.
Since the last WPRI/Emerson poll, Fleming noted that McKee's support among union members has grown.
In the last survey by Channel 12, "he was down by 15 points with union voters," whereas now – after a string of union endorsements, Fleming notes, he's only down by one point. Within this group, Foulkes scored 37% to his 36%.
"But he has to do much better than that with the unions, because that's a group that he's been really working hard" to win over, Fleming said.
McKee is doing best with people who have a high school education or less. He's leading that small sub-group now by 39 points, while she's "doing a lot better with people who have had at least some college education."
The two are now running almost even among young voters, whereas last time he was down by 12 points, "but among the middle-age voters age 50 to 59, he's still trailing 55% to 21%."
Within the age group most likely to vote in primaries – those over age 60 – she leads him, 46% to 31%.
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Foulkes leads McKee by 15 points in latest primary poll