CHICOPEE, Mass. (WWLP) - Long-range winter weather outlooks for the Northeast highlight contrasting predictions and methodologies between traditional almanacs and government meteorologists.
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The Farmers' Almanac forecasts a changeable winter with frequent near-freezing temperatures, while the Climate Prediction Center is favoring above-normal temperatures and precipitation along much of the East Coast.
Predicting weather months in advance focuses on identifying broad climate patterns and probabilities rather than pinpointing daily conditions. While publications like The Old Farmer's Almanac and Farmers' Almanac rely on proprietary formulas created well ahead of each season, the National Weather Service builds forecasts using observations, computer models and continuously updated atmospheric data.
The traditional almanacs disclose some factors behind their long-range forecasts, but keep their exact methods undisclosed. Bryce Williams, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, described how almanac predictions differ from scientific meteorology. "When it comes to, you know the almanacs prediction, The Old Farmer's Almanac and Farmer's Almanac those are actually kinda proprietary," Williams said. "They can overall be kinda generalizing for large swaths of the country for the winter time period."
In contrast to proprietary almanac formulas, meteorologists rely on supercomputers, ocean metrics and atmospheric data to build numerical weather prediction and climate models. "A group of climatetologists, we're looking at our super computers, are the main drivers of the predictions because they are analyzing all sorts of atmospheric data, ocean data," Williams said. "And we have what are called not only numerical weather prediction for weather models but claimte models as well."
The differing methodologies result in contrasting outlooks for the upcoming winter. For the Northeast, the Farmers' Almanac is calling for a changeable winter featuring temperatures frequently near freezing and a mix of rain, ice and heavy wet snow. Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center is favoring above-normal temperatures for the season, alongside increased chances for above-normal precipitation along much of the East Coast.
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