The forecast for Tropical Storm Dolly is drawing renewed attention as meteorologists watch where the system could head next and whether it gets another chance to organize later this week.
Just days ago, Dolly was a named tropical storm moving across the Atlantic. Today, it's no longer classified as a tropical cyclone, but weather experts aren't ready to stop talking about it. Forecast models continue to explore several possible scenarios in the days ahead, including the potential for Dolly's remnants to approach Florida or the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
"If Dolly survives these deterrents, the environment will become more conducive for development and strengthening north of Cuba, near the Bahamas and the Florida Straits, during the middle to latter part of this week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
That's why forecasters continue watching the system even after it lost tropical-storm status. Tropical systems have a habit of refusing to follow the script, and while nobody is predicting a major storm at this point, the combination of uncertainty, possible redevelopment and several potential forecast tracks has kept Dolly squarely on meteorologists' radar. As the Atlantic hurricane season enters one of its busiest stretches, weather watchers are paying close attention to what happens next.
The National Hurricane Center says Dolly has lost its closed circulation and is now a strong tropical wave producing showers and thunderstorms across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at roughly 24 to 25 mph.
Heavy rainfall remains possible across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and parts of Hispaniola during the next several days, with forecasters warning that localized flooding could occur in some areas.
Forecast models generally show Dolly's remnants continuing westward through the Caribbean before reaching areas near Florida and the southeastern Gulf later this week. While there is still significant uncertainty, numerous model solutions have focused on waters near Florida and the eastern Gulf.
The National Hurricane Center says conditions are currently unfavorable for redevelopment, but forecasters expect the environment could become somewhat more conducive by midweek as the system approaches the southeastern Gulf.
That possibility alone has been enough to keep Dolly among the most closely watched tropical systems in the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center currently gives Dolly's remnants little chance of redevelopment in the short term, but the odds rise to 20% over the next seven days.
AccuWeather meteorologists say a more favorable environment may develop once the system clears portions of the Caribbean.
"Wind shear, dry air and friction from land areas in the northern Caribbean will continue to take a toll on Dolly," DaSilva said. "If Dolly survives these deterrents, the environment will become more conducive for development and strengthening north of Cuba, near the Bahamas and the Florida Straits."
AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said steering winds will ultimately determine where the system goes from here. One possible scenario could pull the remnants away from the United States, while another could allow a reorganized system or related disturbance to move closer to Florida or enter the Gulf.
Florida remains one of the areas attracting the most attention in the forecast.
The National Hurricane Center says conditions could become more favorable for redevelopment as the remnants move closer to Florida and the southeastern Gulf later this week.
Even if Dolly never regains tropical-storm status, forecasters say its tropical moisture could still increase rainfall across portions of the state.
"Tropical Storm Dolly fell apart on Friday. Now it might try to come back," meteorologist Ryan Hall said while discussing the latest outlook.
WFLA Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said moisture associated with Dolly is expected to combine with Florida's already active weather pattern, potentially contributing to periods of heavy rain.
According to the National Hurricane Center, redevelopment remains unlikely in the immediate future because Dolly lacks a closed circulation. However, forecasters say environmental conditions may improve later this week as the system approaches Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The agency currently assigns the remnants a 20% chance of redevelopment during the next seven days.
For now, the forecast remains fluid. But with several possible paths still on the table and at least some chance of redevelopment later this week, Dolly continues to command attention from meteorologists across the Atlantic basin.
Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist covering trending and breaking topics across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for USA Today Network. Reach her at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Where is Tropical Storm Dolly headed? Latest forecast shows what's next