Edouard was on a final approach to Texas and Louisiana on Tuesday morning.
As of 8 a.m. Eastern, it was a borderline 40-mph tropical storm, but the National Hurricane Center warned that "significant strengthening is forecast before Edouard reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast."
The storm was just 40 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. Edouard is forecast to come ashore in the region as a high-end tropical storm, but there remains the chance that it becomes a borderline Category 1 by landfall.
Regardless of strength, tropical-storm-force winds of 40-plus mph are likely near the coast. Heavy rains are the primary concern for inland residents; a general 4 to 8 inches is likely where Edouard tracks ashore (probably just northeast of the Houston metro), with localized 10-inch totals.
A storm surge warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Cameron/Vermilion Parish, Louisiana, line. Along the coast, a 2-to-3-foot surge is possible, with an outside chance of localized 4- or 5-inch amounts if Edouard's rate of strengthening is greater.
The National Hurricane Center has also issued a hurricane watch from High Island, Texas, to Cameron Parish. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the upper Texas coastline from Galveston, Texas, to near Intracoastal City, Louisiana.
If it seems Edouard popped up out of nowhere, that's because it kind of did. It was hardly a clump of thunderstorms in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, then continued to develop Sunday. By that morning, the National Hurricane Center said it had a 20 percent chance of development. Those odds were hiked to a 70 percent likelihood by Sunday night.
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Monday was mostly a waiting game.
Given warm water temperatures between 86 and 88 degrees, Edouard was primed to strengthen once it could organize an inner core. That process took a while; only during the evening hours did it finally develop a cohesive low-level center of circulation.
Around that time, dry air eroded some of Edouard's thunderstorms, pressing the pause button on strengthening.
But by Tuesday it was off to the races. Doppler radar by the morning indicated the center was just 40 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana.
Radar also indicated a tighter, well-developed eyelike feature that was about 10 miles wide. Assuming the eyewall, or innermost ring of downpours and wind around the eye, remains intact, Edouard could spike in strength before landfall.
The most likely scenario calls for Edouard to become a 60- or 65-mph tropical storm before landfall, though a low-end 75- or 80-mph hurricane can't be ruled out.
While it's frustrating to have a wide range in uncertainty even a few hours before landfall, it highlights the challenge with small tropical cyclones — because they're tiny, they can fluctuate quickly in strength.
But because Edouard is a small, last-minute storm, it hasn't had long to churn up the seas, keeping the storm surge threat low.