Russia's planned satellite constellation network, designed to offer an alternative to Starlink internet connectivity, is already falling out of orbit, making it harder to meet its deployment timeline. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Soyuz rocket manufacturing infrastructure have only made matters worse.
Russia has long planned an alternative to Starlink, but after SpaceX switched off Starlink access to Russians in Ukraine, its efforts have accelerated and become more pronounced. It launched the first Rassvet satellites in March and then some more in July, but few of them hit their planned orbit, and some are already falling back to Earth.
One of the first Rassvet satellites fell out of orbit entirely in June, and United24 reports two others are losing altitude. RussianSpaceWeb reports that none of the second batch got even close to their planned 800-kilometer orbit, with all of them currently sitting under 330 kilometers at their apogee, with a perigee well under 200 kilometers. This lower-than-planned orbit is likely to cause the satellites' orbits to degrade further and faster, while also limiting their coverage for users on Earth.
The newest Rassvet 3 designs offer much greater coverage... if Russia can get them into orbit.Credit: Bureau 1440
At the latest check, while a number of the satellites had attempted to raise their orbits, none had managed to clear 360 kilometers. A number of them have now entered decaying orbits where they are expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere in the not-too-distant future.
Russia committed to getting over 100 satellites into orbit this year, and as many as 250 in 2027, but that seems unlikely now. With fewer than 30 active Rassvet satellites in a functional orbit, Russia would need to launch half its active fleet every month to hit its goal—assuming no more fall back to Earth in the meantime, which they may well do.
Russia typically only launches six to eight Soyuz craft per year, but that is further complicated by Ukraine recently hitting the Progress Space Center in Samara. This is the sole facility in Russia that manufactures the Soyuz-2.1b rockets that currently carry these satellites into orbit. Russia does have other launch vehicle options, but Soyuz was their first port of call.
Ukraine is likely to target additional Russian satellite infrastructure to weaken launch capability. Although Russia's constellation is limited, it can still provide satellite coverage for up to two hours per day to frontline troops and for navigating missiles and drones, making it useful even in a limited fashion.
Ukraine will want to make sure it doesn't expand further if it can help it.