TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Republicans expected Florida to stand as a crucial pillar of their national mid-decade redistricting push. But with roughly two months until Election Day, the chances of the GOP flipping all of their target Florida House seats is looking far from certain.
There are signs that the same undertow dragging Republicans down nationally is in play in a state dealing with its own affordability crisis. The early predictions were that the GOP could snag four additional seats in Florida — but now, even the state's Republican leaders are tamping down expectations.
Gov. Ron DeSantis — the architect of a new congressional map passed this year by the Republican-controlled state Legislature — has noted the political environment is different than four years ago when he easily won reelection.
"I think those are all going to be competitive races for sure," DeSantis said last week in Tampa. "I think if this were 2022 and these guys were running those races, we'd win all four — no question, slam dunk. This year, they're winnable, but I think it's going to require some effort."
This year's election marks the first time in a decade that neither President Donald Trump nor DeSantis will be on the ballot in the nation's third-most populous state. Trump has seen his popularity wane in his adopted home state as Republicans deal with the fallout over the war in Iran, gas prices and the economy.
Florida Republicans have built-in advantages, including a roughly 1.5 million edge over Democrats in the number of active registered voters. But one Florida GOP operative, granted anonymity to discuss congressional races candidly, said districts carried by Trump just two years ago by less than double digits are at risk.
"Anything 10 or below is in play for Democrats," said the operative, who added that financing and the effect of Republicans at the top of ticket — such as the GOP candidate for governor, Rep. Byron Donalds — could play a role in down ballot races.
DeSantis, who is term-limited and will leave office in January, is taking an active general election role in this year's congressional races. He recently invited those running in open seats or challenging Democratic incumbents to the governor's mansion, where DeSantis donated money from his federal super PAC to their campaigns.
Republican hopes for Florida were much higher at the start of a tit-for-tat cycle that saw Republican- and Democratic-led states across the country engage in mid-decade redistricting.
Florida has voter-approved anti-gerrymandering standards that were supposed to ban drawing districts for partisan gain. Yet state Republican officials have hoped the new map produced by DeSantis and handed over to state legislators this past spring could take the GOP's current 20-8 delegation edge and grow it to 24-4. Groups have sued over the DeSantis map, but they were unable to keep it from taking effect for 2026.
The new map has already had some immediate impacts. The redrawn districts prompted longtime Democratic incumbent Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz to switch districts and instead run in one that had been held by a Black Democrat for decades. Fellow Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who also saw his district reshaped, is running in a new configuration which left his old seat open. Moskowitz, who easily defeated a progressive in his primary, is running against former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer in Florida's 25th District in a race that may become one of the most expensive contests in the nation.
Trump carried the South Florida coastal district by just under 9 points in 2024, while DeSantis won it by 8.3 points two years earlier. More than $26 million has already been spent on ads, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact, including attack ads against Moskowitz.
Two other Democratic incumbents — Reps. Darren Soto and Kathy Castor — also had their districts dramatically changed by the new map. Castor, who has represented the Tampa Bay area for nearly 20 years and is part of a well-known political family in Florida, saw the state's 14th District reconfigured into a seat that Trump won by slightly more than 10 points in 2024.
That margin could make Castor's seat difficult to flip. But Mike Beltran, a former legislator and attorney who recently won a crowded primary to challenge her, expressed confidence in defeating her as he lashed into her over her voting record, including her opposition to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
"The people in Hillsborough County are fed up with Kathy Castor and I look forward to prosecuting the case against her over the next two months," Beltran said.
Castor, who called her race one of the most "competitive" in the nation, countered Beltran by saying she's heard from voters ranging from suburban residents to local farmers who are angry about economic policies including tariffs as well as cutting off subsidies for those who were enrolled in Obamacare health exchange plans.
"People are pretty fed up," said Castor. "They think that people in D.C. are completely out of touch."
Soto's central Florida district lost Hispanic voters and blue neighborhoods near Orlando and now includes several rural conservative counties that are part of the state's GOP-heavy heartland. Florida's redrawn 9th District went for Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 18 points. Soto is being challenged by Dan Green, a former Navy veteran whom Trump appointed to a job at the Pentagon.
Soto, in a text message sent to POLITICO, insisted that "this is a tough but winnable seat" and that he has already gotten an "outpouring of bipartisan support" including support from agriculture groups that are "coming to our aid."
"New areas of the district remain very competitive," Soto said.
While put on defense by mid-decade redistricting, Democrats have targeted a handful of Republican districts in Florida, such as seats held by Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Maria Salazar. But Democrats may have lost their biggest pickup opportunity when embattled GOP Rep. Cory Mills lost to primary challenger and former news anchor Ryan Elijah.
DeSantis himself refused to endorse Mills ahead of the primary even though Trump had previously backed him. He said that Republicans "may have lost" the seat if Mills had managed to win.