Connecticut will get through much of Wednesday without major weather trouble, but the quieter stretch will give way to two rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late tonight through Thursday evening.
Clouds will dominate this afternoon, keeping temperatures mainly in the 70s. A brief shower cannot be ruled out, especially in western Connecticut, but most outdoor plans should have a decent chance of staying dry through sunset.
The more widespread rain threat arrives late tonight as a warm front approaches from the west. Rising humidity will help showers become increasingly likely overnight, with embedded thunderstorms possible. Then, after a damp start to Thursday, another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and early evening as a cold front moves through.
The Storm Prediction Center's more organized severe-weather outlooks remain focused south and west of Connecticut. The agency has a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - from parts of the eastern Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, where damaging wind gusts are the main concern, along with a lower-end hail and tornado threat.
Connecticut is outside that higher-risk area, though any thunderstorm still could bring lightning, downpours and brief gusty winds.
This afternoon: Mostly cloudy and relatively quiet, with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 70s. A spot shower is possible, but it should not be an all-day washout.
Tonight: Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms become more likely from west to east, beginning as early as late evening in western Connecticut and spreading across the state overnight. Locally heavy rain could lead to ponding on roads and poor-drainage flooding.
Early Thursday morning: Rain and scattered thunderstorms still may be moving through, particularly before daybreak. This overnight activity should be fast-moving enough to limit widespread flooding, but localized downpours remain possible.
Thursday morning commute: Plan for wet roads, reduced visibility in heavier rain and patchy fog in spots. There may be breaks in the rain (especially after sunrise), but commuters should allow extra time.
Thursday afternoon and evening: A second, more scattered round of showers and thunderstorms is possible as temperatures climb into the lower 80s. A stronger storm cannot be ruled out, especially across western and southwestern Connecticut, although extensive cloud cover could limit how much instability develops. Conditions should gradually improve Thursday night.
Connecticut is on the northern edge of a more active late-summer pattern. Multiple disturbances are expected to ride from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic over the next several days, repeatedly tapping into warm, humid air farther south. That warm air mass is prompting heat advisories for parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey on Thursday, while Connecticut stays much cooler due to a nearby frontal system.
On Thursday, the SPC again places its Slight Risk farther south and west, from the eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic coast. That region could see scattered damaging-wind-producing storms, while Connecticut's threat is more conditional and dependent on how much the atmosphere can recover after the overnight rain.
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This article originally published at Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are headed for Connecticut. Here's the timeline.