Pinellas County school district officials have said it for more than a year: The system is rapidly losing students and needs to retrench.
The district, which served more than 100,000 children in the early 2000s, had 70,363 enrolled on the 10th day of classes in August, down from 77,854 two years earlier. Close to 45,000 seats sit unused countywide.
The response started slowly, with occasional closures and mergers, and picked up steam last fall. The school board shuttered two campuses this year, with plans to convert three others into K-8 campuses and add preschool services to an unused wing at another.
More would follow, the board warned. That day is now upon us.
The next batch of proposals comes Thursday morning, when superintendent Kevin Hendrick plans to present recommendations devised after several public forums and weeks of research by his team.
He's calling it "Planning for Progress."
When it comes to the specifics, though, Hendrick has remained tight-lipped, even as rumors have swirled through communities about which schools might sink and which might survive.
Board members said they haven't received any lists or details in advance of the upcoming session. One thing they don't want is for people to talk about the pending moves as just closing schools, board member Katie Blaxberg said.
The idea, she explained, is to create a model that gives students, families and communities schooling as good or better than what they currently receive. It simply must be sustainable in the face of declining birth rates, decreasing enrollment and the resulting revenue reductions.
To accomplish that goal, Hendrick has said he has guidelines behind his eventual proposals that look beyond the numbers. Considerations will include the age of a building, the academic programs offered, the school's stature in the community, the distance to other campuses and other factors, he said.
He and others have repeatedly said they don't intend to close high schools. Elementary schools, where lower birth rates are hitting hardest, could see the most shifts.
The district's 10-day count, taken Aug. 24, offers some insights into the realities officials will look at when discussing next steps.
District data show that of 120 schools and centers, 18 had enrollment gains of at least one student from a year earlier, with another 13 showing losses of 10 or fewer.
The largest gains came at Seminole Middle and Seminole High, which each added about 40 students.
The vast majority of schools showed declines, with 15 campuses dropping by 100 or more children. Pinellas Park High led that list, with a 142-student dip, followed by Ozona Elementary, Curlew Creek Elementary and Tarpon Springs Elementary.
The district also saw the number of schools with fewer than 300 students jump to 21, upfrom 15 a year ago. Of those, seven — including five specialty schools — had fewer than 200 students.
The two traditional schools sitting below 200 were Woodlawn Elementary in St. Petersburg and Bear Creek Elementary, which sits between South Pasadena and Gulfport.
Woodlawn also has become the most underused non-specialty school in the district, at 25.4% capacity. It sits within four miles of several other elementary schools, all of which are below 70% capacity.
Those include Maximo and Lakewood, which are less than half full, and Campbell Park and North Shore, which are closer to two-thirds full. All these schools have A grades from the state.
At 189 students, Bear Creek uses just under half its classroom seats. It's less than 3 miles from Gulfport Elementary, which lost students this year and sat at 39.4% full. Both schools have A grades from the state.
Earlier this summer, the Gulfport City Council called on the district to reassign all children who live in the city and attend Bear Creek to Gulfport Elementary, according to the Gulfport Gabber.
Among other schools at or below 45% capacity:
• Neighboring Azalea Middle and Azalea Elementary each saw their numbers decline by about 50 students, putting them each at 44.3%. The board merged Bay Point Elementary and Middle schools, which have similar capacity rates, into a K-8 starting next year.
• Boca Ciega High School, which grew slightly, remained at 38.8% capacity, lowest of all traditional high schools. It's just up the road from Gibbs High, an arts magnet that held steady at just under 46% capacity. Both are C-rated.
• Kings Highway Elementary, a B-graded magnet in Clearwater, declined below 200 children, making it the second-lowest capacity traditional elementary behind Woodlawn. It sits around the corner from A-rated Sandy Lane Elementary, which at 328 students is just over half full.
On the other end of the spectrum, two dozen schools were at least80% filled, even if some had lower student numbers.
That group included Osceola, St. Petersburg, Largo, East Lake, Palm Harbor University, Dunedin, Clearwater, Hollins and Northeast high schools, in addition to three K-8 schools and seven fundamental schools.
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