This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)is preparing for a consequential iPhone launch, but Huawei and Xiaomi are moving first, turning its foldable debut into a high-stakes China test.
At its September 9 event, Apple is expected to introduce new iPhones and potentially its first foldable model, likely called iPhone Ultra. Pricing could exceed $2,000, creating a premium category that may offset rising memory costs. Citi expects Apple to sell 7.3 million units by the first quarter of 2027.
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The timing is challenging. Huawei launched the Mate XT2, succeeding the Mate XT. The device unfolds twice into a tablet-sized screen and uses the Kirin 9050 Pro processor alongside a LogicFolding chip designed to improve capacity and power efficiency. It adds water resistance and privacy protection.
Xiaomi is expected to reveal the Xiaomi 18 Fold with a passport-like design resembling the rumored iPhone Ultra and an Xring 03 processor. Samsung introduced its passport-sized Galaxy Z Fold8 in late July. Apple therefore enters a segment where rivals are refining hardware and software.
China raises the stakes. Huawei led smartphone shipments during the second quarter of 2026 with 23% market share, up from 18% a year earlier. Apple held 18%. China is the world's largest smartphone market, while Huawei and Samsung lead global foldable sales.
For investors, iPhone Ultra offers premium pricing and an upgrade cycle. However, its price narrows the addressable market and demands advantages in durability, software and battery performance.
Wall Street remains optimistic. Apple carries a Moderate Buy consensus based on 16 Buys, 11 Holds and four Sells. The average $337.55 target implies 5% upside.
The September 9 event must prove Apple's late arrival reflects strategic patience rather than lost ground. A differentiated Ultra could let Apple monetize foldables at scale. A familiar design facing cheaper, experienced rivals may struggle to alter its competitive trajectory.