Letitia Plummer released an internal poll Tuesday that shows her leading Republican Orlando Sanchez by double digits in the race for Harris County Judge.
Plummer, a Democrat and former Houston City Council Member, led Sanchez 53% to 37% in the survey conducted by the Washington-based HIT Strategies. Nine percent of voters were undecided.
Republicans are hoping for a competitive race in November after eight years under progressive Judge Lina Hidalgo, who is not seeking reelection. Plummer's pollster believes that growing dissatisfaction with Republican leaders at the top of the ticket, however, presents Sanchez with an uphill battle.
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"With (Plummer's) support still growing and Sanchez's allies deeply unpopular with Harris County voters, this race represents a real opportunity," said HIT Strategies President Terrance Woodbury, in a statement. "Her win can, and will, help power turnout for the entire Democratic ticket."
The Sanchez campaign, in a statement, said that releasing paid, internal polling data reflects growing nerves on Plummer's team, and that her "real" numbers are likely below 50%.
"This race is about Harris County but the Plummer campaign wants to hide her failed record and make this about Democrats versus Republicans," said campaign spokesman Chris Beavers. "Voters know it's about competence versus corruption."
HIT Strategies conducted the poll over a week in mid-August among a sample of 600 likely general election voters in Harris County. It was released publicly Tuesday, a day after a virtual debate between Plummer and Sanchez was postponed due to technical difficulties.
Renée Cross, who leads the University of Houston's political polling efforts, said the poll boasts a decent sample size but lacks demographic data, making it difficult to draw broad conclusions about its results.
Cross expects Plummer to win, but said a 16-point lead may be far-fetched given the slim margins of Democratic victories in the 2018 and 2022 races for county judge.
"I would expect the Democrat to do much better this year because the tide is going toward blue rather than red in this particular election," Cross said. "But (16 points) is a lot in a county that is maybe blue, but not dark blue."
The Plummer poll found that likely voters have soured on GOP leaders, with more than 60% of respondents viewing President Donald Trump unfavorably.
Only 17%, by comparison, had an unfavorable opinion of Sanchez, but another 45% had never heard of him, the poll showed. About 49% of respondents were not familiar with Plummer, but the national conditions are more in her favor, Cross said.
"If people don't know who (Sanchez) is, just the fact that he's got an 'R' by his name, in Harris County, hurts," Cross said.
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While local Democrats hope to benefit from outrage against Trump administration policies, Republicans are not giving up hope that they can reclaim Harris County this fall.
Gov. Greg Abbott said last year that he would be spending $25 million to turn Harris County "dark red" this year and boost Republican nominees up and down the ballot. Sanchez, also a former City Council Member and former Harris County Treasurer, outraised Plummer in the first round of fundraising after the primaries.
Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist who conducts political polls with Texas Southern University, said partisan polls are often useful fundraising vehicles if the data reflects well on the candidate who commissioned it.
"It's a poll with a goal and a mission, and that doesn't mean it's incorrect - the results it presents are very plausible," Jones said. "(But) it's being done for a campaign with an express goal."
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This article originally published at Internal poll shows Letitia Plummer with 16-point lead over Orlando Sanchez in Harris County Judge race.