Up and down the ballot, the incumbent advantage is at risk today in Rhode Island's primaries.

If polls, campaign cash and endorsements piling up behind Helena Buonanno Foulkes prove an accurate predictor, Democratic Gov. Dan McKee could be the first incumbent to lose his primary reelection bid in Rhode Island in more than 30 years. McKee's own party declined to endorse him.

Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos is also facing a formidable challenge from Newport City Councilor and former Mayor Xay Khamsyvoravong in a five-way primary that also features two other challengers with elected office experience.

And in the capital city, young progressives are rallying behind David Morales in his bid to unseat Providence Mayor Brett Smiley in a battle over everything from rent stabilization to snow removal. 

Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. — except in New Shoreham, where polls open at 9 a.m. If you are waiting in line at 8 p.m., you will be able to vote. A list of early voting locations can be found on the Rhode Island Secretary of State's website.

In the primary, voters can only vote in the primary of the political party to which they are registered. But unaffiliated, or independent, voters can vote in any party primary.

Though not on the ballot, term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha has played a central role in the open, four-way primary to succeed him, vehemently defending his former policy aide Keith Hoffmann amid an accusation battle with fellow candidate and former Cannabis Control Commission Chair Kim Ahern. Also running are Reps. Jason Knight and Joe Solomon Jr.

Three of Rhode Island's four congressional seats are also on the ballot, with Jack Reed facing two progressive challengers, Connor Burbridge and Luis Muñoz, in his bid for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate.

Even in a state where the Democratic party dominates, two Republican races stand out.

Dr. Stephen Skoly and Vic Mellor are competing to advance to the Nov. 3 ballot to challenge Democratic U.S. Rep. Seth Magaziner for the state's 2nd Congressional District. Skoly has the state GOP endorsement.

Republicans Aaron Guckian and Elaine Pelino are competing for the GOP spot in the gubernatorial race in November. Guckian has the state party's endorsement.

All 113 General Assembly seats are up for election, though more than three-fifths feature an incumbent running unopposed in both the primary and general elections.

One certainty in the many unknowns: the unique Wednesday primary — moved from the usual Tuesday slot to give election administrators more time to prepare — is sure to trip up at least a few voters. Even the city of Pawtucket in an initial Aug. 17 email newsletter put the wrong day of the week in its primary reminder notice to voters. 

The change of date did not affect the nearly 49,000 eager beavers who had already voted as of 4 p.m. Tuesday, either in person at designated, municipal polling places or by mail. In person early voting was nearly twice the amount as four years ago, when state general office holders were last up for reelection.

But, it's still unclear whether the surge in early voting means higher turnover overall, or if voters are becoming more comfortable with and aware of other options.

Roughly 1 in 5 Democratic voters were still undecided in the gubernatorial primary race, according to multiple polls. In the primaries for lieutenant governor and attorney general, nearly half of likely primary voters hadn't made up their minds yet.

"With the undecided as high as they are, the people who are gonna vote for the most part are going to make the decision tomorrow," Matt Ulricksen, an associate professor of political science at the Community College of Rhode Island, said in an interview

McKee's campaign said the governor planned to cast his ballot around 8 this morning at Bear Hill Village in Cumberland. Foulkes, his former CVS Health executive opponent, was scheduled to vote at 8:30 a.m. at Salvation Army – Freedom Hall on Pitman Street in Providence. The two ran against each other in the 2022 primary, with Foulkes losing to McKee by three percentage points in a four-way race.

"I don't see him pulling off a Hail Mary," Ulricksen said of McKee. "The mood of the voters is sour — Heaven help the person who replaces him."

SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX.