Temperatures across South-Central Texas so far this month have been significantly above average - feeling much more like mid-July than it does mid-September. In fact, San Antonio's average afternoon high temp so far this month has been 98.4 degrees, which is about 6.5 degrees warmer than normal for the first half of September.
But the difference may be even more noticeable when it comes to our morning low temperatures, which have been unusually warm and muggy lately. Through Sept. 15, San Antonio's average low has been 78.6 degrees, the warmest ever recorded in the Alamo City during that timeframe.
These abnormally warm mornings go beyond just this month. Tuesday morning marked San Antonio's 110th consecutive day with a low temperature of 70 degrees or higher - the longest such streak in the city's history. It beats the previous record, set in 2016, when San Antonio experienced 106 straight days with low temperatures of 70 degrees or higher.
So when will temperatures finally start to feel more like fall across the region? More specifically, when will San Antonio finally be able to enjoy cool, crisp fall mornings with low temperatures in the 60s, or even the 50s?
We analyzed historical weather data, along with current long-range weather forecasts, to find out when you may finally need to reach for a jacket.
According to San Antonio's climate data, which is based on temperature data from 1991 through 2020, average low temperatures typically fall into the upper 60s by Sept. 20. In other words, if this were a "normal" year, San Antonio could expect temperatures in the 60s to return within the upcoming week.
However, this is not a normal year, as long-range weather models are showing that significantly above-average temperatures are likely to continue through the rest of September. High temperatures in the 90s, as well as lows in the mid- to upper 70s, are expected over the next 10 days.
San Antonio has an outside chance of low temperatures dropping into the upper 60s by the end of the month. However, current trends suggest it's more likely that cooler weather will be delayed until the first or second week of October.
More consistent cool weather is likely to arrive by the middle and end of October. According to San Antonio's long-term climate data, average low temperatures typically dip into the 50s by the third to fourth week of October.
October also typically brings the region's first strong cold front of the season. Since 2000, San Antonio's average first strong front - one that causes high temperatures to drop by at least 15 degrees - has arrived by Oct. 14.
Of course, Oct. 14 is just an average. The actual first strong cold front can arrive significantly earlier or later depending on the year. Last year, for example, the first strong cold front came on Oct. 28-29, when high temperatures plunged from the 90s into the 60s in just 24 hours.
Truly cold typically doesn't arrive until late fall or winter. Climate history shows that San Antonio's first morning below 40 degrees arrives, on average, in mid-November, while the region's first freeze typically doesn't occur until the first week of December.
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This article originally published at When will South Texas morning temps return to the 60s? Here's what to expect..