The official poverty rate in the United States dipped slightly by half a percentage point last year to a historic low of 10.2%, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released Tuesday.

The supplemental poverty rate, a more holistic figure that includes an individual's non-cash resources, remained essentially unchanged at 13.1%, according to the bureau's annual poverty report. The report measured 2025 numbers in comparison with 2024 and previous years.

The median household income for 2025 rose 2.6% from the previous year to $87,460, the highest on record, according to the bureau's annual income report.

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Some experts cautioned that the data doesn't reflect the effects of new federal policy changes that will be hitting households hard this year, and that the United States should expect grimmer statistics in next September's report. Most significantly, the massive tax and spending bill passed by Congress last year slashed Medicaid, food assistance and other public benefits that have kept millions in the country hovering above the poverty line.

This week's numbers are not all that surprising, but they may not reflect an entirely positive picture, said Steven Durlauf, a professor and director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility at the University of Chicago.

The supplemental poverty measure, he noted, is more all encompassing because it includes cash and noncash benefits and expenses, such as taxes and medical expenses, whereas the official poverty measure focuses just on cash resources. 

"There's some basic good news there, and that is that median household income, you know, substantially increased 2.6% after inflation is nothing to to sneeze at," Durlauf said. But he said the fact that the supplemental measure hasn't budged could mean that people with lower incomes, and who may rely on more government benefits, aren't really benefiting from "an economy that's running hot." 

Census data show women in full-time, year round work saw higher median earnings from last year by about 3%, while men in the same position saw a decline of 0.9%. 

And while it's true there was growth in wage income this year, Durlauf said, he expects the numbers will be worse next year for people from more marginalized backgrounds. He pointed to "inequality-increasing" policies such as tax cuts for the rich, cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, and major cuts to the Medicaid health insurance program for people with lower incomes. 

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"The main issue for most individuals is going to be the fact that prices and inflation is outstripping wage growth, and so that's obviously some diminution of real incomes for some people," Durlauf said. 

U.S. Census Bureau data also show 92.1% of people were insured in 2025, as compared with 92% in 2024 – reflecting the relatively flat uninsurance curve in the U.S. since 2020, when 91.4% of people were insured. 

The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan research arm of Congress, estimated that roughly 15 million people would become uninsured by 2034, well more than the current estimate of 1.3 million uninsured people. 

Additionally, the number of children receiving SNAP benefits fell by 1.2 million between July 2025 and July 2026, according to an August analysis released by the left-leaning research group Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. 

"The combination of the erratic fiscal policies, the effect on energy prices via this destabilization of the Middle East, and to be blunt, the utterly irresponsible fiscal policies of the country in terms of budget deficits, are not conducive to an economic environment in which the economy does well in terms of the usual ways we think about growth," Durlauf said. 

Stateline reporter Shalina Chatlani can be reached at [email protected].

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