This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), the Danish drugmaker behind Wegovy and Ozempic, fell 2.23% intraday after Berenberg downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, cutting its Copenhagen target to DKK 305 from DKK 325 and its ADR target to $47 from $50. Analyst Kerry Holford argues that the Wegovy pill upside her Buy rating was built on has already played out.
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Berenberg and broader consensus now model around DKK 15 billion of Wegovy pill sales for 2026, which leaves little room to surprise. The broker actually raised its 2026 revenue estimate 2.9% to DKK 296.18 billion and lifted recurring EPS 10.8% to DKK 23.12. The cuts land further out: 2028 revenue down 2.3% to DKK 308.76 billion and 2028 EBIT down 2.8% to DKK 125.05 billion, on weaker CagriSema assumptions. At 13.4x 2027 earnings, the stock now trades in line with European pharma peers.
The competitive read is blunter. Berenberg expects Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) to take a disproportionate share of the Medicare weight-loss opening, as it already has in the commercial channel, and sees Lilly's direct-to-consumer spending intensifying in the second half.