Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Dolly. Where's it going?

Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday morning, Aug. 27, and is moving quickly westward toward the Leeward Islands, according to the Friday morning forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

While the storm is expected to run into the same dry air and wind shear that has prevented other tropical systems from developing this summer, forecasters say the Leeward Islands can expect heavy rain and localized flash floods Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.

However, should the remnants of Dolly reach favorable conditions, there's a slight possibility it could reform near the Bahamas, according to AccuWeather.

"If Dolly can survive the dry air, wind shear and land interaction near the islands, the environment does become more conducive for development and strengthening off the southeast U.S. coast mid to late next week," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.

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Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

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So far, Florida is not expected to see any impact from Tropical Storm Dolly, which is likely to start breaking up as it hits the same dry air and wind shear in the Caribbean that has prevented other storms from developing this summer.

However, AccuWeather forecasters said there's a chance Dolly could come back.

"If Dolly can survive the dry air, wind shear and land interaction near the islands, the environment does become more conducive for development and strengthening off the southeast U.S. coast mid to late next week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

A tropical depression has maximum sustained surface winds — based on a one-minute average — of 38 mph or less, according to the National Weather Service.

A tropical storm has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph.

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C. A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud are journalists for the USA TODAY Network-Florida's service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida's best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://tcpalm.com/newsletters.

This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Dolly. Where's it going?

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