The message of generational change didn't win last night in Massachusetts, as all of the incumbent federal Democratic lawmakers held off their primary challengers.
Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., defeated Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Rep. Stephen Lynch, D-Mass., fended off his primary challenge in lawyer Patrick Roath. And the three other representatives who faced similar challengers also won another term in office.
Still, that doesn't mean an end for the movement. UMass Poll Director Tatishe Nteta said in an interview a few days before the primary that even if none of the change candidates got elected, the unusually high number of challenges proves many Democrats are unhappy with the current leadership and raises the question of whether the party will try to respond to that ferment.
He said he expects to see the same level of challengers, and maybe even better and well-funded ones, next election cycle.
"It's a bubbling cauldron, and not over exploding as of yet, of the need for movement by some members of Congress to cede to the next generation," Nteta said. "The case for generational change is much more acute and much more powerful when individuals again continue to run for re-election into their early 80s."
Here are three major takeaways from the Massachusetts primary last night.
Markey handily defeated Moulton in the U.S. Senate primary, with the election called for the longtime senator less than 30 minutes after the close of polls.
Moulton had attacked Markey for his age, saying that it was time for a new generation of leaders. Markey is 80, while Moulton is 47. But polls before the primary suggested that voters cared more about Markey's progressive policies and experience than his age, and the results Tuesday supported that.
This election marks the second time in as many cycles that Markey has defeated a much younger challenger. In 2020, he beat then Rep. Joe Kennedy.
More: Why do younger Democrats keeping coming for Mass. Sen. Ed Markey?
But it doesn't mean there isn't an appetite for change. Instead, Markey may just have been more in step with the state's Democratic electorate. Throughout the campaign, he stressed his progressive credentials, referencing the Green New Deal, touting endorsements from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and attacking Moulton for comments he made about transgender athletes.
"I think with Senator Markey, the challenger is not the correct challenger in terms of their characteristics to press on some of the weaknesses of Senator Markey. But you could imagine a more progressive challenger who has those bonafides, who's making a similar case, who is able to mobilize prominent Democrats in the state, then the argument for generational change, the argument about tenure in Congress, and the argument about age might have hit harder," Nteta said. "This might not be an issue of the message. It might be an issue of the messenger."
But as it stands, Markey is likely to serve his third full term in the U.S. Senate as the race is rated "Solid D" by the Cook Political Report. He will face Republican John Deaton in the November general election.
Of the state's nine U.S. House members, four faced primary opponents who ran on messages of generational change this primary. All were able to hold on to their seat on Tuesday.
The unusually high number of primary challenges against incumbents in the Bay State follows a national trend. Around the country, Democrats running against a more experienced, usually older opponent, have been calling for change.
While many, including activist Darializa Avila Chevalier, 32, who beat five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat, 71, in New York and former Hartford, Connecticut, Mayor Luke Bronin, 47, who beat 14-term Rep. John Larson, 78, won off that message, none of the candidates in Massachusetts were able to defeat their incumbents.
In the 1st District, which covers much of the western and central parts of Massachusetts, Rep. Richard Neal, 77, defeated teacher Jeromie Whalen, 39. In the 5th District, which includes suburbs north and west of Boston, House Minority Whip Rep. Katherine Clark, 63, beat Tarik Samman, a 27-year-old union organizer and Harvard Law School researcher, and Jonathan Paz, a 33-year-old former Waltham city councilor and immigrant rights organizer. In the 8th District, Rep. Stephen Lynch, 73, overcame lawyer Patrick Roath, 39. And in the 9th District, which encompasses Cape Cod and southern parts of the South Shore, Rep. Bill Keating, 73, triumphed over consultant Craig Swallow, 40.
Defeating incumbents is historically difficult: according to a 2016 review by Ballotpedia, House and Senate incumbents nationwide have been reelected at rates over 93% and 87% respectively. Incumbents benefit from name recognition and being able to point to accomplishments like bringing home federal funding for projects in their district.
Even though the incumbents won, Nteta said that just the number of challenges suggests that large chunks of the representatives' constituencies are not happy with their leadership.
"The question is whether they're going to react to that or are they going to continue to do what they've done in the past," Nteta said.
All of the incumbents are now almost certain to win another term in Congress in the deep blue state.
One non-generational change-related race on the ballot Tuesday was the Republican primary for Massachusetts governor.
Here, Michael Minogue, a 59-year-old businessman and inventor, defeated Brian Shortsleeve, a former MBTA administrator. He will face incumbent Gov. Maura Healey, who was uncontested in the Democratic primary, in the November election.
Minogue supports immigration enforcement and cutting taxes, and says he would cancel "unfunded mandates" like the MBTA Communities Act, which requires towns with commuter rail lines to build a certain amount of housing near the transportation. He is also anti-abortion, although he has said he would uphold the Massachusetts law if elected.
Minogue likely has a challenge ahead of him. The Massachusetts governor race is rated "Solid D" by the Cook Political Report, and two polls released before the primary showed Healey handily beating Minogue in a hypothetical matchup: 54% to 30% in a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll, and 53% to 33% in a UMass Poll.
"Since Charlie Baker left the governor's office, Massachusetts Republicans have been searching for a candidate capable of defeating Democratic Governor Maura Healey," UMass Poll Director Tatishe Nteta said in a press release. "But our findings suggest that the Republican nominee will face a steep uphill climb this fall."
Nteta said in an interview before the primary that the Republican winner would have an opportunity to criticize Healey on issues like cost of living, affordability and housing, which are all important to voters. However, it might be a hard thing for Minogue to argue, he said, as a multi-millionaire who largely self-funded his campaign.
Plus, Healey is a fairly popular incumbent: in both polls, her approval rating was above 50%. It's also a progressive state, and the midterm elections are likely to revolve around what's going on at the White House, Nteta said, which benefits Democrats.
This article originally appeared on Telegram & Gazette: Generational change candidates lose in MA. 3 takeaways from primary