Today is the day we hit the peak of hurricane season.
Will it be one for the record books? Some meteorologists are hinting it could be and there is a possibility of no hurricanes this year.
On Sept. 10, we should be firmly in the busiest period of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Instead, the 2026 Atlantic season "has moved into the basement," said Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
While not many Florida homes have basements, we all understand what he's saying but let's repeat an important plea from experts:
Low activity doesn't mean no activity, and Florida residents should always remain prepared.
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There have been five tropical storms as of Sept. 10. Five! And no hurricanes.
How unusual is that? By the middle of September, the historical average is nine tropical storms and four hurricanes, according to AccuWeather.
What's more, forecasters are predicting conditions will remain quiet in the Atlantic basin, giving only a low chance for anything to develop in the basin this month as wind shear associated with El Niño continues to make it difficult for anything to form or strengthen.
The National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook on Sept. 10 is predicting no tropical cyclone activity over the next seven days.
"If no hurricane forms by Sept. 11, the 2026 Atlantic season will mark the latest point in the satellite era without an Atlantic hurricane," according to AccuWeather.
"Will it be the quietest hurricane season of all-time?" Truchelut asked.
Forecasters are watching three tropical waves Sept. 10.
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"There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That's about one in seven," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 a.m. Sept. 10.
No. The National Hurricane Center said no tropical activity is expected over the next seven days.
AccuWeather hurricane experts have highlighted an area with a low chance of tropical development later this weekend and into next week.
That area includes both the east and west sides of Florida.
"A slow-moving front will drift into the southeastern United States, leading to enhanced thunderstorm coverage. An area of tropical development may take shape offshore in a setup similar to how Edouard formed last week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicholas Arman said via email.
"There are no tropical disturbances with a meaningful chance of development through at least mid-month (September)," Truchelut said.
"There's not even much convection to be found due to widespread sinking air, Saharan dust, and wind shear over the Atlantic. These unfavorable conditions will continue for the foreseeable future.
"Longer term, we can't be sure the Atlantic will stay this calm, though there's no sign of an impending shift toward a more conducive environment," Truchelut said.
"A few of the reliable model ensembles hint at something trying to fire up in the subtropical mid-Atlantic toward the 20th, but that's a long time out and unlikely to pose any U.S. landfall risk, even if it isn't a model mirage."
"If there is going to be an uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic for the balance of the season, it is likely to be during late September to early October," AccuWeather lead long-range meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
On average, the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin forms on Aug. 11, according to NOAA. The first major hurricane forms Sept. 1.
As of Sept. 8, there have been five tropical storms, so we're already well past historic averages, but we're now approaching a record territory.
If no hurricane develops by tomorrow, Sept. 11, it will set a record of the latest first occurrence of a hurricane.
There have been seven seasons in satellite era (since 1966) when September has begun without an Atlantic hurricane.
The latest occurrence of the first hurricane in the Atlantic was on Sept. 11, which has happened twice: Hurricane Gustav in 2002 and the last one, Hurricane Humberto in 2013.
Wind shear and dry, dusty air have made it difficult for tropical cyclones to form in the Atlantic basin this year.
That wind shear is associated with El Niño, which at its most basic, can be described as the natural warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
➤ Here's what El Niño means for Florida
The presence of El Niño tends to decrease hurricane activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico by tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form or preventing them from intensifying through wind shear.
On Sept. 3, Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts, posted on X that wind shear in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean "continues to shatter previous records.
"Only seven seasons in satellite era (since 1966) have gone into September without an Atlantic hurricane," Klotzbach said.
"Will 2026 actually break that record, though, or simply end without any hurricanes at all?" Truchelut asked.
"Every season since 1950 has produced at least two hurricanes, so 2026 will probably see something stronger than Bertha or Edouard at some point."
Truchelut is predicting a season with 10 named storms, two hurricanes, and one major hurricane. So far, there have been five named storms and no hurricanes and the season won't end until Nov. 30.
There's a "40% chance that 2026 will join just six other seasons in not producing a major hurricane, and a 60% chance it will be one of nine since 1950 to record three or fewer total hurricanes."
"There have been no years during the satellite era that began in the early 1960s during which there have been no hurricanes," DaSilva said.
"The last Atlantic season without a hurricane occurred more than 100 years ago, in 1914."
Given the potentially record-setting El Niño conditions and the wind shear generated by it, it is possible for there to be no hurricanes through the remainder of the season, AccuWeather said as it updated its season prediction to eight to 11 named storms, three to four hurricanes and one to two major hurricanes.
"There are a couple of years in the historical record with no known Atlantic hurricanes," Truchelut said.
"However, prior to satellites and Hurricane Hunters, limited observations mean ... open-ocean hurricanes were often missed, so we don't really trust the zeros in 1907 and 1914."
"While strong wind shear should continue in the southern Gulf and western Caribbean breeding grounds of many late season storm threats, this season has shown a proclivity for what little it has mustered to take place near land," Truchelut said.
"I wouldn't be surprised if that continues to be true in the second half of the season."
In its two-week tropical forecast issued Sept. 2, Colorado State University said it was "strongly favoring below-normal activity during the next two weeks" (through Sept. 15), noting "there is very little signal for any potential TC (tropical cyclone) development in the next two weeks from any model."
"Global model signals for TC development in the next two weeks are remarkably weak, given the next two weeks include the climatological peak of the season."
Historically, major hurricanes develop in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic in early to mid-September, according to CSU.
There are three tropical waves listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 2 a.m. Sept. 10:
The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W, south of 20N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, south of 20N and extends into Guyana, moving westward at 17 mph.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, south of 19N, moving westward at 17 to 23 mph.
"Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
"There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That's about one in seven.
"Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes."
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What's changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Arthur: Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17, 2026
Bertha: Tropical Storm Bertha formed July 20, 2026
Cristobal: Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Aug. 12
Dolly: Tropical Storm Dolly formed Aug. 27
Edouard: Tropical Storm Edouard formed Sept. 1
Fay, fay: (sixth-named storm historically forms Aug. 29; first hurricane by Aug. 11; and first major hurricane Sept. 1)
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida's service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida's best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane center watching 3 tropical waves as peak of season arrives
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