Good Wednesday morning! Behind the front, high pressure and a steady northwest flow will usher in drier air, bringing a noticeably more comfortable end to the month. Afternoon highs will remain in the upper 80s/near 90 through Friday, but falling dew points into the upper 50s and lower 60s will make it feel far more pleasant than in recent days.
Expect lots of sun. However, the cross-country northwest flow around a ridge will send wildfire smoke into the air. Given the general distance from the fires, which are in eastern Washington and Oregon, we'll have little impact besides a little haze in the sky. This may make for a few days of vivid sunrises and sunsets.
Humidity will increase this weekend as a system approaches from the Midwest. Clouds will gradually increase Saturday, and while most of the day should remain dry, a passing disturbance could spark a spotty shower by Saturday night.
Attention then turns to Sunday and Monday, which currently appear to offer the next meaningful opportunity for showers and thunderstorms as the upper low slowly moves through the Northeast, along with a stalling front. This may keep a prolonged stretch of wetter weather with thunderstorm chances elevated each day. We'll have to keep an eye on whether this amounts to any tropical development as well.
12.16" of rain has now fallen this month at RDU Airport. This makes July 2026 the 2nd-wettest July on record at RDU, only 0.20" from the wettest July in 1931 (12.36"). This is more than what fell during the entire first 6 months of the year (11.88", which was the driest January-June period on record). Quite a contrast, to say the least!
Despite this, drought conditions still persist across the area. We have seen some meaningful rises on Jordan and Falls lake but other places still need some more to go.
As far as additional rainfall, the last drought amelioration report from Sunday still had much of central NC needing around 15" of rain to fully eliminate the drought.
No tropical development is expected in the next 7 days.