Russia is suspected of launching a series of sabotage operations against European weapons factories in an effort to test NATO's resolve, The Telegraph reported Sunday, citing Western intelligence sources.
Russia is recruiting members of local criminal gangs and carefully planning the attacks with "plausible deniability" so they do not reach the threshold that would trigger NATO's Article 5 mutual defense provision.
Estonia said Tuesday it was investigating potential Russian involvement in a fire at a building used by defense contractor Milrem Robotics. Bloomberg reported that the prosecutor's office suspected arson at the facility used by the manufacturer of autonomous combat vehicles with close ties to Ukraine.
Latvian authorities detained three suspects in connection with the fire and are working with Estonian investigators. State prosecutor Gardi Andersone said investigators were exploring all possible leads, including sabotage, but could not yet share further details.
Beyond the Estonian incident, explosions have occurred at facilities operated by major arms manufacturers in Italy and Bulgaria this month alone, according to The Telegraph. Earlier this year, a fire virtually destroyed a Czech plant making drones and thermal optics for Ukraine. Four suspects were detained as part of the investigation into possible Russian involvement.
Lithuania also charged six people in connection with an attempt to burn down a factory supplying radio-wave scanners to Kyiv.
On Aug. 10, a major explosion ripped through a plant belonging to EMCO, one of Bulgaria's largest private arms manufacturers of 155 mm artillery ammunition for Ukraine. The incident began when a truck parked near a storage warehouse caught fire, triggering explosions at the facility.
Three days later, a similar blast rocked a munitions factory operated by KNDS Ammo Italy in Colleferro on the outskirts of Rome.
Italian and Bulgarian officials have sought to play down possible Russian involvement in the incidents, The Telegraph reported, adding that Russia typically leaves little evidence allowing suspected sabotage operations to be directly attributed to Moscow.
A Western intelligence assessment previously reported by The Telegraph said Russia's GRU military intelligence agency, known for conducting operations on foreign soil with highly trained agents, had increasingly turned to criminal gangs.
In an interview with The Telegraph in March, Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia's State Security Service, or VDD, said: "In our experience, we don't see officers of the GRU travelling here physically to our country.
"No, they stay in Russia where it's safe," he said. "They're not taking any risks for their own operational and physical security."
Instead, GRU officers cultivate sources within criminal gangs that act as intermediaries in targeted countries, communicating through messaging apps such as Telegram. The middlemen then assign tasks to local recruits, who are paid in cryptocurrency and often never learn they are working for Russia.
The covert nature of the Kremlin-ordered attacks is seen as a deliberate effort to sow discord among NATO allies, according to The Telegraph. Eastern European members, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, have been far more vocal in accusing Russia of conducting hostile operations across Europe.
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