Ohio experienced tornadoes, floods and flood watches, and an early September heat advisory this summer. As we await the autumnal equinox, cooler temperatures, and fall leaves, the Farmers' Almanac has released its first frost forecast for the 2026-27 winter season, offering an early look at when Ohioans may notice winter taking hold.

Here's when the more than 200-year-old publication predicts Ohio may need to bring their potted plants indoors.

According to the Farmer's Almanac, most of the Midwest usually sees its first frost around early- to late-October, but the first frost in the lower Midwest is likely to arrive later.

Cincinnati sits just south of that range, according to the Farmer's Almanac map. Its expected to see it's first frost between late-October to mid-November.

Specifically, the almanac's historical averages show that Cincinnati's first frost may happen on Oct. 20. The National Weather Service of Wilmington said Cincinnati's first freezing temperature will most likely arrive around Nov. 5.

Meanwhile, Columbus and central Ohio may see the first frost on Oct. 22, based on Farmer's Almanac historical averages, while the Cleveland area may have to wait until Nov. 7.

Meanwhile, the NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information show the first frost happening sometime between Oct. 1–15 in northeastern and southeastern Ohio and between Oct. 16–31 in the rest of the state.

According to its website, the almanac uses a mix of sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical pattern weighting to make its long-range forecast.

Frost conditions are ideal when air temperatures are around 33 to 36 degrees under calm conditions, according to the almanac. Freezing begins at 32, it said, and most unprotected vegetation will be killed around 24 or lower.

The almanac has been making forecasts since 1818. It reports 80% to 85% accuracy on regional outlooks.

Others equate predictions made by almanacs to the accuracy of a flip of a coin: A University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign study done in 2010 found that 51.9% of the monthly precipitation forecasts and 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts were accurate.

Meteorologists often caution that forecasts made several months in advance carry significant uncertainty, especially at the local level.

The USA TODAY Network contributed to this story.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: When will Ohio get cold? See Farmers' Almanac first frost map